Northern Arizona
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
6  Futsum Zienasellassie SO 30:57
28  Matt McElroy JR 31:21
36  Brian Shrader SR 31:25
75  Nathan Weitz SO 31:44
107  Josh Hardin SR 31:53
187  Andy Trouard FR 32:11
250  Caleb Hoover JR 32:24
304  Alejandro Montano SO 32:33
467  Korey Krotzer FR 32:56
770  Cody Reed JR 33:29
1,201  Ryan Wesson FR 34:08
National Rank #2 of 311
Mountain Region Rank #2 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 2nd at Nationals


National Champion 13.6%
Top 5 at Nationals 71.5%
Top 10 at Nationals 92.6%
Top 20 at Nationals 99.7%


Regional Champion 20.0%
Top 5 in Regional 99.9%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Futsum Zienasellassie Matt McElroy Brian Shrader Nathan Weitz Josh Hardin Andy Trouard Caleb Hoover Alejandro Montano Korey Krotzer Cody Reed Ryan Wesson
Cowboy Jamboree 09/28 532 31:28 31:31 32:35 32:14 32:03 32:26 32:55
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/19 277 31:08 31:18 31:20 31:42 31:49 31:45 32:22 32:39 33:10
Big Sky Championships 11/01 521 31:37 31:37 31:44 32:10 32:33 32:38 34:06 34:07
Mountain Region Championships 11/15 349 31:30 31:34 31:34 31:55 31:34 32:09 32:50
NCAA Championship 11/23 205 30:37 31:08 31:09 31:37 31:37 32:51 32:14





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100.0% 4.6 221 13.6 17.8 16.6 13.2 10.4 7.2 5.2 3.7 2.7 2.2 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 2.3 74 20.0 37.1 33.9 7.5 1.5 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Futsum Zienasellassie 100% 9.0 1.0 5.0 7.3 8.4 7.4 6.2 5.4 5.2 4.2 3.3 3.4 2.7 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0
Matt McElroy 100% 31.8 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.3 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.0
Brian Shrader 100.0% 38.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.5 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.7 2.2
Nathan Weitz 100.0% 75.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3
Josh Hardin 100.0% 97.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Andy Trouard 100.0% 142.2
Caleb Hoover 100.0% 171.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Futsum Zienasellassie 2.7 6.4 32.8 15.3 9.3 6.9 5.2 4.3 3.5 2.8 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1
Matt McElroy 8.7 0.1 1.9 5.4 7.6 7.7 8.2 7.3 7.3 6.7 6.1 4.9 4.6 3.8 3.5 2.6 2.5 2.4 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.8
Brian Shrader 10.3 0.8 3.2 4.7 5.9 6.0 7.8 7.0 6.4 6.1 5.6 4.9 4.4 4.3 3.5 3.1 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.2
Nathan Weitz 18.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.9 2.0 2.7 3.4 4.1 4.2 5.2 4.5 5.1 5.0 4.4 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.9
Josh Hardin 23.9 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.5 3.1 3.6 4.0 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.6 3.9 3.3 3.8 3.4 3.7
Andy Trouard 35.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.9
Caleb Hoover 44.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 20.0% 100.0% 20.0 20.0 1
2 37.1% 100.0% 37.1 37.1 2
3 33.9% 100.0% 25.2 6.5 1.6 0.5 33.9 3
4 7.5% 100.0% 3.4 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.5 4
5 1.5% 98.7% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5 5
6 0.1% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6
7 0.0% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 100.0% 20.0 37.1 25.2 9.9 3.6 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 57.1 42.9




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Arkansas 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Texas 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Wisconsin 99.7% 1.0 1.0
BYU 99.6% 1.0 1.0
Indiana 99.6% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 99.5% 2.0 2.0
Eastern Kentucky 99.4% 1.0 1.0
Syracuse 98.9% 1.0 1.0
Portland 97.3% 1.0 1.0
Columbia 97.0% 1.0 1.0
North Carolina 96.8% 1.0 1.0
Notre Dame 95.9% 1.0 1.0
New Mexico 93.9% 1.0 0.9
Providence 91.6% 1.0 0.9
Air Force 68.6% 1.0 0.7
Harvard 65.7% 1.0 0.7
Florida 59.3% 1.0 0.6
Georgia 55.0% 1.0 0.6
Dartmouth 23.0% 1.0 0.2
Georgetown 17.7% 1.0 0.2
Minnesota 17.1% 1.0 0.2
Washington 10.2% 1.0 0.1
Arizona State 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Tennessee 7.8% 1.0 0.1
Southern Utah 6.7% 1.0 0.1
North Carolina St. 5.2% 1.0 0.1
Illinois 4.7% 1.0 0.0
UCLA 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Michigan State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Louisville 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 18.2
Minimum 14.0
Maximum 23.0